After months of speculation and initial moves from some Central Banks, it looks like September is going to be the month in which the interest rate environment firmly turns a corner.
It should be good news for hard pressed mortgage holders, especially those with trackers.
They could be in line for a double round of rate cuts in the coming weeks.
However, time could be running out for those with deposits to lock in and secure a nice rate on their savings.
Change afoot globally
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank were the first out of the traps among the major Central Banks with rate cuts during the summer.
It came against the backdrop of falling inflation which had soared to highs not seen in decades over the last few years.
Inflation has been a bit more stubborn on its way down in the US.
However, some analysts are of the view that the US Federal Reserve has been too prescriptive in its endeavours to get inflation back down to its 2% target and that such efforts could be harmful to the US economy.
Indeed, a slew of measures recently have pointed to an economy that's slowing down at best, heading towards recession at worst.
It has prompted calls from many quarters on the Fed to trim interest rates by a full half a percentage point in September.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has as good as signalled a cut, but it may not be of the magnitude that some had called for.
"The time has come for policy to adjust," Mr Powell said in a keynote address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week.
"The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
Sounds like code for rate cuts.
What about here?
The European Central Bank has been less committal on its next moves.
The bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, warned at the weekend that the bank's goal of getting inflation back to its 2% target is 'not yet secure'.
Isabel Schnable, an executive board member of the ECB, said on Friday that 'risks' still persist on the inflation front.
She said the board should proceed 'gradually and cautiously'.
"The pace of policy easing cannot be mechanical. It needs to rest on data and analysis."
But the data is very much pointing towards another rate cut.
A 'flash estimate' on Friday showed the rate of inflation across the eurozone falling to 2.2% in the year to this month.
It means while prices are still rising, inflation is within touching distance of the ECB's target rate of close to 2%.
Add to that some recent concerning economic data out of Germany - the eurozone's biggest economy - and rate cuts are looking very likely.
What size are we talking about?
It's likely to be another 0.25% cut.
That would bring the ECB's deposit rate to 3.5% and its main refinancing rate to 4%.
For the average tracker mortgage holder, who gets the benefit of each rate cut (but they also got hit with each increase), it's a saving of around €13 a month.
For those on fixed or variable rates, the pricing is a bit more precarious.
Anyone who is coming off a fixed rate that they locked into around three years ago is coming back into a mortgage pricing environment that is vastly different to that when they fixed.
However, on saying that, most lenders here did not raise fixed or variable rates to match the ECB increases.
And they have been reducing their pricing in anticipation of rates coming down.
"In April and May, we saw many of the main lenders dropping their rates by up to 1%," Martina Hennessy of mortgage platform doddl.ie said.
She pointed out that the best fixed rates on the market now start from around 3.45% with some competitive variable rate offerings from around 3.75%.
"If you can get a three four year fixed in or around the 3.5%, it's a solid rate," Ms Hennessy said.
"Most mortgage holders like security. They don't like to speculate."
What about this bonus cut for trackers?
This follows an 'operational framework review' carried out by the European Central Bank in recent months.
A decision was made to reduce the 'spread' - effectively the difference - between what the bank charges for its refinancing rate and its deposit rate.
The difference is currently 0.5%. The bank says it intends to reduce that to 0.15%.
That means tracker mortgage holders will 'pocket' the difference of 0.35%.
That return would amount to around €20 per month for every €100,000 borrowed.
A nice boost. But as Martina Hennessy pointed out, it must be put in the context of the pace of the increase in tracker rates in the past few years.
"Even now - post the June reduction - if we look at a tracker mortgage holder with €250,000 with 15 years left, they are still paying €550 more than they were in 2022 when the base rate was zero," she explained.
What's happening to savings rates?
Figures form the Central Bank of Ireland in recent weeks showed the average interest rate on new mortgages here falling to 4.11% in June, reflecting those rate cuts that started to come into play in the prior months.
While there was a slight fall for mortgages, the average deposit rate actually went up in the month to 2.75% - a 15 year high.
That may be reflective of the competition the main banks are facing from online European fintechs (financial technology companies) operating here, some of who were offering the full ECB rate on deposits up until recently.
They are especially keen to get their hands on deposits and they are willing to pay for them.
Yet most people with savings here are getting little or no return.
"Irish households currently have over €150 billion resting on deposit. But the vast majority of the money is still in accounts that pay little to no interest," Daragh Cassidy, Head of Communications with price comparison website, bonkers.ie said.
He said anyone hoping to make a return on their cash should move their money promptly from easy-access low-yielding accounts as the window of opportunity is closing.
"Although mortgage rates will likely ease a bit more over the coming months, especially if the ECB cuts rates for a second time before the end of the year, which it might do as soon as September, this is likely to start putting downward pressure on deposit rates also," he explained.
The 'Goldilocks' zone of lower mortgage rates and decent deposit offerings will not last for long.
The interest rate environment looks like it's turning another corner.